Why No One Believes John Swinney Will Deliver Independence

By Colin Fox, SSP National Co-Spokesperson

Andy Burnham was in Motherwell this week [article originally published mid-October] on a visit designed to overshadow the SNP Conference in Aberdeen. Accompanying him at the New College, on the site of the old Ravenscraig steelworks, were the local MP Pamela Nash (former CEO of ‘Scotland in Union’ the group launched in 2015 to keep Scotland in the UK) and Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander.

Whilst the polls in England have recorded a ‘Burnham bounce’ showing Labour’s popularity markedly up on a year ago, there has been no commensurate improvement North of the Border where they continue to trail the SNP by the same amount as before.

What is perhaps more remarkable is that Labour’s ‘Scottish stasis’, as it were, has occurred while support for the SNP is also less than lukewarm.

‘Nicola-mania’ is long gone. No-one asks John Swinney for a selfie. And despite winning their 5th Holyrood election in a row SNP membership and popular support have continued to dwindle.

They lost two Council by-elections in Edinburgh last month and their vote fell by another 10% in Stephen Flynn’s back yard last week. All in all, it was a much-diminished SNP that met for its 2026 Annual Conference.

One tradition from the past was maintained however, the regular promise to ‘launch the biggest campaign we have ever seen’ to secure Scottish Independence!

Seasoned observers have come to expect such announcements at every conference which is not to suggest the ‘custom’ is universally popular.

Indeed there is now considerable unease among SNP delegates at the impotent emptiness of it all. Many members believe the leadership now pays mere lip service to the cause in the same way Labour leaders throw in the word ‘socialist’ from time to time at their gatherings.

Few honestly believe John Swinney will lead Scotland to independence. Indeed, most ‘YES’ supporters expect him to follow Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf ‘out the door’ soon rather than lead them to victory.

And you can see why.

Mind you if uttering endless, empty clichés was all we needed to secure independence Scotland would be self-governing by now.

‘The stars are aligning’ claimed John Swinney in Aberdeen, ‘the wind is firmly in the sails of the independence movement’, ‘a turning point has been reached in our journey towards statehood’, ‘our independence is very, very close’ because ‘we are on the final lap before victory.’ None of this is of course true.

The independence movement is going backwards by almost every measure. Swinney and his predecessors have continually underestimated the forces ranged against independence, their opportunist electoralism completely at odds with the strategy needed to secure liberation.

British politics remain volatile and unstable

Whilst some believe the decline in support for Reform means the widespread sense that ‘nothing works’ has passed, they need to think again. For, not only does Burnham face all the same problems Starmer did, he is as ill-equipped to solve them.

Labour’s ‘bounce’ is temporary.

Voters, whilst grateful to Burnham for ousting Starmer – the most unpopular PM in polling history let’s not forget – and for doing so bloodlessly, insist that is not enough.

Working people cannot ignore the cost-of-living crisis as they are plagued by soaring petrol prices, higher food bills and by the prospect of energy charges they simply cannot afford.

They see an NHS already breaking ‘corridor care’ numbers before the acute winter bed crisis arrives. No one in Britain is looking forward to the ‘holiday season hell’ in hospitals where ‘skeleton staff’ are further thinned out by ‘off duty’ rosters knowing this means thousands more patients will die prematurely.

Equally, the senseless NATO war in Ukraine rolls on and drains Britain of billions of pounds it should be spending elsewhere. The same can be said for the imperialist delusions behind Burnham’s increased defence spending, dressed up as Keynesian re-industrialisation of ill-advised armament adventures.

Britain remains in a sorry old state with ‘severe drought warnings’ in place in October, air traffic control chaos inflicted on a regular basis, where social services and maternity care catastrophes are routine, and where burst water mains occur daily (like my own in South Edinburgh last week).

‘Nothing works’ and yet we are warned there is no money to fix things as billionaires become trillionaires. That is the economic essence of Burnham-ism.

And on top of all that the National question remains unresolved.

Scotland is split 50:50 in the polls. Whilst this is not sufficient to win any 2nd vote, it nonetheless reveals a high level of latent support for independence.

The ineptitude of successive SNP leaders shows us the Independence movement faces a profound challenge. It must begin by abandoning Swinney and the neo-liberal politics of the past 50 years.